I like Kjeldson. But I hate Kjeldson. This vernacular
is something I often use when describing a close friend. I can't bring myself
to annex this person completely, but I can hate him, and at the same time
occasionally like him. This is how Soren Kjeldson is making me feel. I hate him
because he is refusing to live up to the standards that I expect him. I like
him because he's just so friendly and likeable and every now and then does some
good golfery, however this just seems to serve to infuriate me when he plays
like an idiot. After a fairly solid three under on the first day, Soren decided
to celebrate by dashing my hopes with a brace of 74s, a total of four over for
his second and third rounds. Having backed Kjeldson in play I neglected to take
advantage of each way terms, so Soren has an almost incomprehensible task to
make me some money today, probably setting a new world record.
But I've moved on.
Soren isn't going to do it. The other person that didn't do it is Andy
Sullivan. Around the same time that I backed Kjeldson, I read that Andy had
recently (the day before) had a child, and on that day would be turning 30.
Using the news of the newly arrived child I quickly applied the Willett theory
and backed Sullivan. I'm ashamed to say I became a little frenzied in this
endeavour and it wasn't until I had the bet on that my heart decided to calm
down. Sullivan had evidently decided that my heart should calm down so much
that it stopped, in order for me to die, as he carded two 75s to miss the cut.
Perhaps he wanted to spend time with his newborn. Or maybe he was hungover. Or
both.
Thankfully, things
are going significantly better across the pond. When I say significantly what I
mean is somewhat. The primary result of the formula was Kuchar who currently
sits in T3. Kuch is playing well and with plenty of self confidence, my fingers
are crossed and I know that this evening my heart will be beating. I'm also
trying to rationalise a feeling that -16, which is currently the lead, isn't
the actual lead. Whilst Koepka is a powerhouse, and is not up for a maiden win,
having bagged one last year, taking home the Phoenix Open Trophy, he has come in
to this tournament in a spate of missed cuts and Top 25 finishes, all without
really contending on the last day. The T5 in the WGC Match Play doesn't really
count to me because....C'est la Match Play and it's not the same. I'm in no
doubt that this absolute beater of the ball will win again soon, but I don't
think this is his week. I therefore do not credit him as leading, and see the
lead as -14. In my mind at least this means that my chap is no worse than one
shot behind, and as the tournament doesn't really start until the back nine on
Sunday, we are well poised to strike. Even if Koepka does hold up, three behind
is nothing, and holding the 54 hole lead is much harder than chasing it.
Dufner is a few back
and Hoffman somehow managed to go backwards on Saturday. The other chaps
somehow managed to miss the cut, so DeLaet. Palmer, Bradley, Piercy and
Affrunti will bear no fruit for me this week.
I have decided to
have a small reload this week, to open up the opportunities, and have had a
double on Willett and Garcia. Both chaps are three off the lead (and we know
what I think about Koepka). Willett shook the rust off at the Players last week
and is now back to contend. A disappointing four shot swing in round three
means that his price has drifted out to a luscious 6/1 and Garcia looks tasty
being in theory only one shot behind, and priced at 9/1. It is however World
Numbers 2 and 3 that cause me problems. Mcilroy has not won since May last
year. This is good for me. It means that he may struggle. The
psychological aspect of Mcilroy’s game is not evident lately, and the 54 hole
lead is a precarious thing. The mentality seems to be to go out and play
defensive golf, make fairways, greens and pars. However, this usually comes
unwrapped, somewhere around the 11th hole, or perhaps later, with a
mistake or two, putting the leader amongst the chasing pack.
From here, it is very hard to change to an attacking
manner of play, and the lead is often lost. This could easily happen to
Mcilroy. The reason that he worries me however is his name. As Willett looks at
the leader board and sees one of the biggest names in golf, he may start to get
a little unnerved. Let’s hope that this is not the case, and that he is able to
triumph. At the Masters, Mcilroy was ahead of him going in to the last round,
and it seemed to have little effect there, and I trust that it will be repeated
here.
Sergio Garcia has not won on the PGA Tour since 2012.
How strange it seems to say that. He won in Europe in 2014, and Asia in 2015,
but his PGA Tour success is lacking some more glass-ware at the moment. A slip
down the world rankings sees him in 15th, compared to his best when
he was in 2nd! Garcia can easily conquer this three shot deficit, (or
one shot), and could find himself lifting the Byron Nelson trophy after a
twelve year vacancy. Jordan Spieth is the worry here. Sort of. The reason for
the worry is the same reason as Mcilroy, his name. Spieth could do almost
anything tomorrow, and everyone will be aware of that. Thankfully, so far, his
ball striking has left a whole lot to be desired. Even with his long irons he
has been dramatically off line, and this could plague him coming down the
stretch.
The dynamic duos double pays 69/1. This represents
excellent value considering that Willett is in second place, and Sergio is only
one off the lead (in a sense).
I will be tuning in to the European action shortly,
and the PGA action later, and if I lose you will be able to read my obituary in
tomorrow’s paper. Or perhaps Tuesday’s.
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