Wednesday 30 March 2016

Houston, We Have a Slumper

The year is shaping up nicely. Winnings are coming in from all over the shop, and I'm spending them just as quickly, on alcohol, food and the like. The Masters is just over a week away, and I'm still standing by my guy, Bubba Watson for the win.

Jason Day is basically some kind of nightmare for me there, but never fear. Bubba is here. But not this week. Which is good. Rest up. He didn't get through the group stage last week, and the pink driver using slumper should be in trim fettle for Augusta. But before that, (obviously), is this week.

The Shell Houston Open is the only real attraction, given that there is no European Tour action, and I'm looking to pick some hot fancies for the week prior to the Masters.

In the past I've been guilty of backing too many players, so a lot are being culled this week.

First up, Sergio Garcia. The plucky Spaniard should feel empowered by him compatriot's (Cabrera-Bello) success with 3rd last week. Serg may only be ranked 52nd with the big stick, but that number is misleading, as he is only 17 yards behind stat leader Finau. Segio finished 2nd to Adam Scott a few weeks back, and has carded an 11th and an 18th since then.

Next up is Big Phil. Not that he's that big really, but you know, whatever. Phil is an Augusta hunter (nearly rhymes) and loves coming in to top form at this time of year. Ranked 5th in all round statistical ability and wants nothing more than a win to boost his confidence before next week. Phil is lacking confidence lately, and this could be a big win pre Masters,

Rickie Fowler is the statistically best golfist in the world at the moment, has won already this year, and this is a course that should suit his relatively new-found slumpery off the tee. Rickie isn't in top form at the moment, but played well here last year before the weekend, but didn't have a good time after that.

My final selection is Matt Jones. The basically out of form Aussie is sort of a dream for this week. Won here two years ago, and will qualify for Augusta with a win here. That is the only reason I'm going to back him.

The other people who I could consider this week are:

Henrik. Long off the tee, and a devil on the green.

Dustin Johnson, sorely needs a win for a confidence boost, and played some terrific golf last week.

Reed. Big hitter.

Oosthuizen, came seriously close last week. Hardest to axe from the plan. Top class player who lost to the best in the world and no one else last week,
Tony Finau. #1 in driving distance, and hot off a win in Puerto Rico last week. Towering iron shots should suit him well here with the small greens.

Chappell, another last chancer for the Masters.

Cabrera-Bello. Although beating Mcilroy in a 3rd place contest is not comparable to beating him for real, the Spaniard should be proud. He's in to the Masters now. Long off the tee and solid on the green he should do well here. However, beware the Sunday Curse. Cabrera-Bella had a tournament in his grasp last year, before floundering on the final day, earning him the nick name Cabrera-Crumble, In my mind at least.

Shane Lowry. Top class batterer of the ball and somehow priced at 100s here. I think I'll probably find a spare £1 for him.

That'll be all for now.

P.S. For no reason, I'll be having some treble action with the web.com (Svensson & Lucas Lee) and the Champions Tour (probably just Jiminez)


Tuesday 29 March 2016

The Day-ly Fruit

Well well well. What a woofing start to the match play. Pointless useless picks. The all-conquering Aussie Adam couldn't quite muster it, even to get through the group stages. Neither could Matsuyama. Or Willett. Or Wiesberger. What a bunch of nonsense ridiculous uselessness. Also, not one of my multiples on the matches throughout the days came in. I probably wasted a further £40 on that balls.
But then I decided to stop woofing about with terrible bets, and to be a hero. I had £5 on Day at 11.00, who seemed to have gotten over his early back problems. Then I had £10 on him at 10.5. Then, after a shaky start, Casey retired after 6 holes, so I had another £20 at 8.8.

Further woofery followed and Day found himself against Mcilroy (as expected), in his first game of the final day. I unfortunately found myself a little worse for wear, (unusually), following a serious night out whilst midway through a course of antibiotics. A thundering chundering hangover had me bowing my head at work.
By the time the golf started I still didn't really feel any better, and when I was watching it, that didn't help either. Rory, previously described by yours truly as a boring golfist, was turning in to the reckoning force that he should have been for years. He was putting well, and driving like an accuracy obsessed distance demon.

Day looked the weaker of the two for the whole of the front nine. It was only Rory's inability to hammer in the nails of the coffin that meant Day was only one down. Finally a glimmer of hope. Although Day hadn't completed the back nine in the tournament thus far, he was fearsome on the way back in.

Day was able to devastate all of his previous opponents on the back half of the course and I was hoping that he would be able to do the same here. It was at this point that my brain, still addled by carafe after carafe of Long Island Ice Tea, decided against a final lump to slump. Jason was now 7/2 to win, and serious consideration was given to chunking £100, but I didn't. Woof.

As if by premonition, Day picked up the hammer and started hitting Rory around the chops. An excellent 3 on the 10th levelled things up.

On 11, Rory really threw his hammer away. Day was off the green, and made par. Mcilroy had a seven and a half footer for the hole but couldn't make it. Day would have felt like he was two up by stealing a half here, and so did I.

Day proceeded to steal the next two holes to give me a raging headache from all the blood rush. It was at this point I opted to consume a medicinal burrito, and sup on the nectar of British sparkling water, which is third to French and Italian. The cure had been found. Rory stole one back. The cure stopped working.
From that point on, it was only the most exquisite short game in the world that kept Day from losing the next two holes and swinging me in to a deep decline. Day could have forced Rory to putt on 17, a two foot eight incher that I fancied he might miss, but he gave it to him, and they progressed to 18.

Two bad irons to the right. Day in the rough, Mcilroy in the sand. Day put his left of the green. Mcilroy missed his perfect spot by eighteen inches. A shot that would have fed right back to the hole, giving him an easy putt to win the hole, and force a play-off.

Day would play first and was taking his time. He used his trademark genius and put it to 12 feet. Mcilroy seemed to duff his shot and I jumped up and down. I then wanted to jump up and down on my own head as his ball started to roll down the hill on the line he wanted his second to take.

Woofing gravity got him inside of Day, and the man from down under had to putt first. Day had been putting awesomely all week. Putts from thirty or forty feet had been burning the edges all week. He stood up to his thirteen footer, and battered it in to the little cup. I almost fainted. I felt as though I'd won all my bets.

I quickly felt better, and was able to leave work, getting home for a nice cup of tea and some Easter eggs before the start of the final.

Father dearest was concerned however. He thought Oosthuizen had the ability to beat our man in the final round. I did not. I stated that I wouldn't even be worried if our man was 2 or 3 down going in to the back 9. I also did not think that was possible. King Louis' crown was not to be his today. He had beaten Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth en route to the final, and he was beat. Whereas Day was always able to find another gear. He was technically already World Number 1, and I knew he would want to cement his position with back to back wins running up to the Masters.

And he did. My money was never in doubt. I checked my cashouts on BetFair a couple of times but it was pointless. I was never going to take them. I felt at peace.

It was like I was dreaming. There is no such thing as an easy win in golf, and whilst Mcilroy had provided the difficulty, Day had fended him off. Now was simply a time to watch the master at work. I relaxed, had some more tea, and watched the world go by.
Winnings cruised in to my account, and were swiftly withdrawn.
Happy Days.

Tuesday 22 March 2016

Brackets of Class

I don't fancy a whole lot this week. I don't want to get out of bed, I'm too ill, and I'm not hungry, which is unusual. But I think there are some hungry people out there this week.

The top 64 in the world will battle it out in the WGC Matchplay this week. Keeping it simple, and playing with only £50, and because, to be honest, I don't completely love the format. Three days of rudimentary round robin ridiculousness followed by four more rounds of knock out match play. If I were a golfist, I would want a nap this week, then go out next week to warm up for the Masters the week after. This tournament is in Texas so beware the local crowd, Jimmy Walker lives in Texas, Patrick Reed grew up there, Jordan Spieth (World Number 1 by the way) is a hero from the Lone Star State.

I'm also giving some credence to anyone to have won a play-off this year, and disregarding anyone who has lost one. Matsuyama and Dufner are therefore getting a heads up and Rickie (sorry bud) and Lingmerth are both thumbs down.

Adam Scott is my first choice. He has won brutally well recently, and the way he played in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, risk reward, should suit him this week. £12.50 ew at 14s takes up 50% of my staking plan, and I think the Wizard of Oz will do well this week.

Hideki Matsuyama beat Rickie Fowler in the Phoenix Open earlier this year, against all the odds, and comes in to this tournament in great form, with figures of  6 - 35 - 11 - 1st. 33s about this Japanese hero was frankly too good to pass up, and £5.50 ew was swiftly chunked on.

Danny Willett come in to this tournament in insane form. He hasn't missed a cut since the French Open last year, and his figures are 22-11-3-45-1-54-4-4-28-3-11-46-52-3-54-17-1-6 (most recent first). He's a proven winner and doesn't have trouble getting across the line, the Ryder Cup will be tough this year, and Danny and the rest of the European Team hopefuls will be looking to impress and put a bit of fear in the Yankee wannabes. 5.50 ew at 33s.

Bernd Wiesberger played well in the Eurasia Cup, giving him some solid match play mettle. Bernd doesn't come in to this week with a heap of great form, The Austrian currently lies 16th in the Ryder Cup standings, but an impressive outing this week could cement his place in the standings, either in the top 9 or as one of Clarke's three wildcard picks. £1.50 ew at 125s is too good to pass up.

For me, there is far too much upset potential this week. The Dayminator won last week, albeit not too convincingly, but his idol won this tournament the week after winning the API too. Justin Rose is in good form, Zach Johnson is finally getting in the rhythm of his new clubs and finished well last week. Rory Mcilroy is in strange form. Up and down so much, which could cause some problems here. Like Adam Scott last week, it was only a one or two bad holes that turned a great round in to an awful one, an impact that would be deadened in a match play format.

Spieth will be looking to crack some form in the weeks prior to the Masters. Bubba Watson is back out after a strong appearance in the last WGC event, coming second, and first the week prior.

As you may know, I have picked 4 players, and they're each from one quarter of the bracket, so as to maximise my potential. That's my advice for this week, if you take nothing away from this blog but one thing, take this; don't pick more than one player from each quarter of the bracket.


Monday 21 March 2016

Day's Day and another Dalliance With Water

Well bugger, Woofing water. The H2NO campaign recruits yet more powerful propaganda. But more on that later.

Coming down the last hole in the Indian Open, Anirban Lahiri had a solid chance for the win. Chawrasia had played some simply unbelievable golf this week, but I still fancied the reigning champion to pip him at the post.

Chawrasia second shot on the 18th was woeful. A nervy lay-up resulting in a duck hook that could have ended up even worse than it was. The lovely Lahiri just had to put his ball in the middle of the green. But no, he blasted one just shy of the grandstand.

I still fancied my man to do the job.

Chawrasia then presumably channelled the spirit of Lakshmi, the Hindu Goddess of prosperity. A miraculous shot to 5 foot was spectacular, and fully deserving of the win. Lahiri failed to channel the Hindu Goddess to his side, He could not chip in from a great lie in the lay up area to force Chawrasia to birdie, nor could he convert the up and down to force Chawrasia to two putts for the play off. The channelling Chawrasia now had two putts for the win, and three for the play off, but one would suffice. A well-deserved win, but I still hated him from preventing me from gaining further fortune.

That wasn't really of huge consequence though, as even though I had a small win wager on Lahiri, at 8s with BetBright, the real money was on the double with the previously auspicious Aussie, Adam Scott. £5ew at 7s and 8s with 365 was unfortunately not to be, thanks to the nonsense water at 18. One of the most viciously carved holes in golf, and a pin position to rival the brutality of the Gestapo, combined with harsh weather conditions, was too much for my previously conquering man from down under.

Plop.

In to the water.

Five under for the day, and on a serious charge, and it was all ruined. Another poor shot from the drop zone put Scott in the sand. An abhorrent plugged lie in the now damp sand left Adam only able to play on to the green, and away from the hole. A swift two putt later, and triple bogeyness ensued, bother.

However, come the final day, Day was winning. £7 at 16s with Betvictor before the tournament was a best investment of the week. I still have other live each way fancies. Rose, Casey and Leishman had all showed promise for some return on my investments. I, however, fancied the destructive Day man to continue. I reloaded with £120 on day at 4/5 with BetFair.

A quiet day at the office meant that I was able to basically watch everything up until 8pm. It was going absolutely horribly. I am incapable of watching golf in front of people when it isn't going well. I go mental. I want to hit things when my guys are doing poorly and jump up and down when it's going well and I can't really do that at work or in front of my family.

I decided to forego watching the remainder of the golf at home, and went to the pub instead. Before I left, I watched something miraculous. From a poor drive, Jason stiffed his second from 168 on the 9th for a tap in birdie. From there on in, I felt assured of the win. I decided to not watch or follow the remainder of the golf until I thought it was over.

Therapeutic as it was, drinking pints in the pub, a part of me still felt tense. A shocking cadre of karaoke was giving me a tension headache, as was not watching the golf. Oh well. Many pints later I checked the scores.

Daycakes had done it. According to the remaining holes it was a narrow thing, with a birdie on the 17th, and Chappell bogeying the 18th giving Day the lead, which he held down the 18th. I have since watched the highlights, and I'm glad I didn't watch in real time. I think I would have had an actual heart attack.
As I said before the tournament, Day's Day was not done, and he has risen, victorious, with a wire to wire win, at the Arnold Palmer.

£208 of profit from betting on Day sets me up well, for the upcoming Masters.

No other funds were made from any of the each way heroes, but the match play is next week.


Wednesday 16 March 2016

Arnold & The Hero

It's fair to say that I'm distracted this week. Working in the industry, during Cheltenham, I can't see how you couldn't be, Fortunes won and lost, over a few fences. I couldn't pull my eyes away from the races today, and for that reason, I'll be short with the golf.

In the Arnold Palmer Invitation, tee to green ability will be of vital importance. Adam Scott leads the field in strokes gained tee to green, and will likely thrive here. A tasty little win on a friend's horse means I have little more firepower and have shovelled £22.50 each way on Adam at 8s (365). Fingers crossed the almighty Aussie can make it three in a row.

Rory is second to him in the field in this, but the way he threw away his lead last time out, leaves more than a little to be desired, especially at such short prices. I have however, had a little tipple on Rory, £5 win and a £5 ew double on him and Lahiri, to return £295, just in case the World Number 2 finds an ounce of form and reliability. (Betbright)

£5 ew on Fraser at 18s is also one for the heroes. £5 ew double on Lahiri and Scott is good too. Lahiri is in strumming form and is the defending champion here. As well as local boy.

Let's talk form since last year's win. Thirty Tournaments. Only six missed cuts. Three times in the top 5, 5th T5th and 2nd. Twice finishing between 6th and 10th. And 3 finishes from 11th to 25th. Ani's world ranking got as good as 34th after the last win and whilst he has already qualified for the Masters, every golfist wants a win coming in, and this could be his time. £10 at 7s is not a particularly great bet, but his value is in the double potential.

I couldn't not back Every, two time defending champion here, Strings of missed cuts preceded him last year, and the same has happened this year. StanJames are offering 6 places at 1/4 (better than Paddys 7 @ 1/5) at 70s which is a bargain. Snapped up.

Six placed for Pieters too. 3rd out last time in Thailand, this absolute slumper of the ball should do well here, with plenty of fairway for him to batter balls down. The big Flemish man has bags of power.

SuperSned is also back out this week. Probably. I love him. I can't deny it. Sned, or as my father calls him, BigFoot, after his size 13s, is a brutally insulting 45/1 this week. My hero will win again, and this track could suit. Excellent tee to green ability, and if putting rhythm is on tap, he will do well, very well. 6 places again, thanks to my man Stan. (James).

The second Scott this week uses the excellent name as his Christian instead of his surname and that is Scott Hend. Winner last time out in Thailand, and an insultingly big price of 28s. The eight time European tour winner has plenty of talent and should do well here.

Jason Scrivener is also on the up and up. A poor finish last week is easily overlooked. Tied 3rd the week before makes for much better reading, and I'm hoping for an all Aussie show this week. A minute double on the two Aussies at 50s and 8s will return over £1000 and that's where the support will be this week.

I backed Uihlein before the final round last week, and he disappointed. But he should do well here. Good form is infectious and he should feel good about last week. Two tied 4ths and a 9th in the last three weeks is exceptional form, and I expect Uihlein to perform here, or come off the boil completely.

There is no English player like Justin Rose at the moment, and whilst I consider 16s to be a bit short for him, his bloom is coming. Form figures of Tied 2nd, Tied 6th, 1st, Tied 7th, Tied 22nd, 13th, missed cut Tied 6th, Tied 16th and Tied 17th are encouraging. Can the English resistance over power the Aussie invaders? Also he's World Number 7.

Paul Casey is the other most interesting man in the field. Casey is off the back of a 7th place finish, and he should have done better. Oodles of talent, but short on wins, going without since 2014. Casey can, and Casey could.
Final mention to D man. They Daymanator. The Killer Kiwi, Jason devastated the competition with five wins in 2015. Brutalised everyone. Spieth was basically assaulted by how good Day was.

Day's day is not done, and 2016 really could be the Year of the Day.

Every week.

Every Day.

Day.

Dayum.


Monday 14 March 2016

Pieters Peters Out

Disappoint week in golf. Small ventures on the aforementioned golfists did not look good. Then all of a sudden Thomas Pieters shot a 66 to put himself right in contention.

I also decided to have a £20 double on Saturday night on Ulhein and Haas. No need to say how quickly that was let down,

Pieters placed for some consolation, but after some of the barnstorming action from the previous weeks, I felt a little deflated.

There are some positives though. In the Valspar, 4 of my players finished in the top 25. (I did tell you I backed Dufner, right?)

All three of my selections made the cut in the Thailand Classic, and Scrivener had a hole in one!


I'm hoping for a big weekend this weekend, it is payday on Wednesday, and firepower will be strong. Heavens, I might even have a little poke on the ponies.

Wednesday 9 March 2016

Be True to Thailand

The Valspar Championship All eyes on Spieth. But not mine.

Henrik Stenson.

Danny Willett.

Justin Thomas.

Harris English.

John Senden.

In that order. Stenson placed 4th here last year, on his first outing. He has recovered well from his knee surgery, and a shaky performance last week is easily over looked for the Ice Man.

Willett is in fine form on American soil, and displayed some of the finest bunker play in the world last week. It's his first outing here, but the Superb Sheffieldian could come out on top.

Thomas is a young powerhouse looking to break through again, and loves this track. Tied for 10th last year and in a good bit of form, he should do well here.
Harris English is also an American in fine form. Tied 10th here last year and 10th last week bodes him well for this week. Power and a strong iron game should set English in good stead.

Finally, John Senden. Winner here two years back, and tied 10th last time out at the Honda classic mean that you should complete your plan with this man. The last two tournaments have been won by an Aussie and there is no reason that trend cannot continue here, currently available at 110s, this is value indeed, and even a place will return dividends.

True Thailand Classic.

Jaidee. Not much to say here. Super tough ex para trooper. Withdrew from illness a couple of weeks ago and refrained from Doral for the same illness, but looks fit for a win here.

Thomas Pieters. Big Scandinavian lad. Powerful and accurate.

Scrivener. Played well last time out in Perth, should be able to handle the heat.


Tuesday 8 March 2016

Willet, Want It, Have It

What a final day. My £60 on Adam Scott at 11/2 looked good after one hole, and then beat after five. The now World Number 6 was 6 shots behind after five. Double bogeys on three and five had me running the bath and getting the toaster ready. A drift out to 50s gave me fleeting thought of popping an extra £10 on the hero, but alas, I did not. Mcilroy, now World Number 2 was 1/7 at that point, and would have been a magnificent lay.

Adam swiftly picked one back up and Rory kept on par. The Northern Irishman had given an interview before the round stating that he had no intention of going out and just defending, but that seemed to be what he was doing. He'd stated his intention to go out and attack but he had not done so. Coming up to the 7th where he would drop his first shot he had already missed two greens and three fairways, but his putting was holding out for him. Two swift bogeys for roaring Rory and two birdies for Adam set off a four shot swing and left Scott one shot better off on the front nine.

Amazing Adam started the back nine with three birdies and Rory missed two fairways but made par. Adam, the new love of my life followed Rory's bogey on 13 with a birdie on 14 to take command.

Scotty upped the warp factor on 16, the driveable par 4 and put a 3 wood in to the bunker to the left of the green. A good uphill lie and a shot in to the wind set me up for another potential birdie and a two shot lead!

Out of nowhere...SHANK.

 A shank.

He shanked it.

Adam Scott, with form figures of 2,1 coming in to this tournament, shanked it. The World's greatest ball striker shanked it.

Bugger.

He went directly to the right and narrowly avoided another bunker. A huge birdie chance down the drain and the commentators were blaming a slightly narrow stance. Woof.

A solid up and down saved par and he almost actually chipped in, but no. Scott put himself in the fairway bunker on the 17th, and set himself up for a trademarked display of his long range bunker brilliance. A simple two putt par set him one ahead with one to play.

Bubba, Danny and Phil were all chasing, Watson threw down the gauntlet on 18 to force Adam to make par or better for the win. A bailout drive to the right rough put the Aussie in trouble. A tree dead ahead left him forced to play a huge fade over the water and the ball looked to be bound for H20. H2OHNO! My heart stopped. I had a heart attack. I was basically dead.

Sometimes, the best people in their respective fields get a bit of luck, and Scott dipped in to his pot of luck here. Somehow, miraculously, the ball didn't go in the water. I still think it should be banned.

A nervy chip with the horrible commentators reminding everyone about the shank two holes previously was played with sublime excellence and almost went in. A solid six and a half footer was bolted in for the win, aside from Mcilroy making eagle on the last. He didn't, and glory was mine. I was dancing around the living room once more.

There is no such thing as an easy win in golf, and seeing as I don't really get any exercise normally it's the only workout my heart really gets.

Each way returns from Willet totalled £22. Returns from Scott totalled £390. Total outlay for the week was a shuddering £170. The last of the Bubba millions and the Thomas returns from last week were gone and I was left with a profit of only £242. Not bad, but I should have been better. I backed 16 players from a 66 player field and I was only able to back the winner after 54 holes.

My goal for next week, do better.

More ammunition is always welcome, but concentrated firepower is the key.


Saturday 5 March 2016

Great Scott!

Adam Scott is the Number 1 player in the world right now. Either he, Rickie Fowler or Jason Day will be World Number 1 by the end of the year. His ball striking ability is second to none, and his towering powerful iron shots put fear in to the hearts of the remaining golfing elite. Even though Mcilroy gained 5 shots on him today, he will still win this tournament. 

Mcilroy is exceptional. There is no doubt. But the amazing Adam will do this. Even though I already consider my betting to be over the top this week with 14 players selected, and 2, possibly 3 and maybe even 4 still in contention, I have decided to stretch myself even thinner and have had £50 on Scotty at 11/2. He pipped my boy last week and almost caused me an upset the week before, so hopefully the Amazing Antipodean can conquer Florida, and see off the most unreliable finisher in the world of Golf, and the most boring Northern Irishman to ever play the game. 

The Spanish Inquisition, comprising Garcia (also backed) and Cabrero-Bello (Cabrero-Crumble) are coming up the inside. 

Luscious Lefties Bubba and Phil (whom I sometimes call Bill or Bilbo for no real reason) are powerful and experienced contenders with serious Green Jacket potential this year and are also in exceptional form with stunning mental outlooks on life and the game and could apply very real pressure. Rickie had an 8 on the 3rd today and still managed to shoot one under, so if you're looking for a late day charger, look no further. Whether or not it will be enough, remains to be seen. 

Lahiri, an incredibly hard working up and comer has had three solid rounds and I think is good value for a top 5 finish at 6s. But with all of my firepower snuffed out, that one will have to be missed. 

In bad news, poor old Snedeker withdrew from the tournament after one round. Low bone turnover is to blame. A niggle for a few years, this week it proved to be too much, and he withdrew. With Augusta burning brighter than a supernova on the horizon this was probably for the best. For him. Not for me. My largest investment (pre-tournament) was on SuperSned so I felt quite sick. Sned really puts me through the wringer. So do all golfists. And water on the golf course. And water everywhere. H2NO campaign is ago. Who needs enemies when you can punt? 

Anyway, back to Sned. Somehow, incredulously, BetVictor's LiveChat service voided my bet on Snedeker. 

I immediately reinvested with £5 ew on Bill (Phil) and another £10 on the Lanky Aussie Scott. 

Good luck to me. 

P.S. Donaldson shot four over today so goodbye to that. 

P.P.S I was right about Fraser, Piercy, Hoffman and Dufner. 

P.P.P.S Please let me be right about Scott. I love you Adam. 


Friday 4 March 2016

What Golf Championship?

Day 2 will begin later.

A lot later.

I hate waiting for the golf to come on.

There's no European Tour action and I don't have enough knowledge about the LPGA.

Donaldson 2nd round leader at 90s seemed unfair for someone who seems to be in the best form of his life. 18s to finish in the top four. Definite fancy.

I do not fancy Fraser, prefer Piercy, dote on Dufner, or head for Hoffman.

To me, even though two of them have won this year, I see them crumbling away today, and I'm hoping that the Wicked Welshman can win the day.


For the outright, brilliant Bubba, fiery Fowler, magnificent Mickleson, Walker-before you can runner or Spieth.

Thursday 3 March 2016

WGC - Which Golf Championship?

Fireworks are set to blow this week, and I've blown my wad.

I've backed fourteen players. Berger, Haas, Broberg (please?), Watson (more of the same), Donaldson (just so MrHarrow can't gloat) Fitzpatrick (As per), Rose, Thomas (again), Koepka, Matsuyama, Fowler (come on Rickie!), Sergio, SuperSned and Willet. Willet finished day one in 4th. Watson, 8th. Donaldson, Fowler & Matsuyama 11th. Koepka 16th. Garcia 37th. Haas 43rd. Berger & Rose 48th. Fitzpatrick & Snedeker 56th.

And Broberg, was in dead last at 66th.

Early days.

Also. Majors. US Masters - Watson or Scott. US Open - Spieth. Open Championship - Mcilroy or Snedeker. US PGA - Fowler.


You heard it here first.

ISPS Handa Honda Classic - El Nino Returns

Fired up and full of ammunition I approached this week early. Whilst it seemed unlikely, I backed last year’s winner, Harrington should have been insulted to be priced up at 90s. Brutal as the course was, 90s was an insult for a man who won the tournament last year, and still had all four limbs. Also given consideration for last year was Berger, the runner up.

And additional shots were fired at Mickleson, Matsuyama, Fowler, Walker, Garcia, Grace, Kisner (nearly leading the FedEx), Fitzpatrick, Lingmerth and Zach Johnson. Johnson was another golfist who should have felt insulted by being priced at 45s. Justin Thomas should also have been insulted by his price of 80s. So I backed him too. My pick for the double was Kisner and Oleson. The deconstructive Dane looked set for victory. Also selected in the ISPS were Scrivener, Ilonen and Bjerregaard. I opted to avoid Oosty, This was his 4th tournament in a row, and he had accredited more air-miles than an albatross.

Phil started off well and Fowler did too. At the end of the play on Friday I was being offered a third of my total payout on Rickie, but as previously described, cash out is for mugs. Rickie had belted out two bogey free 66s and looked set to completely bounce back from his play off defeat two weeks prior. He then shot +4 on Saturday. Tits. 

Come Sunday I had a fair bit of contention in the Honda Classic but the European Tour interest was Scrivener, whom I only had to win. So I decided to reload and had several doubles on Wattel and Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia and Rickie Tickie Fowler. Wattel had just shot a 65, tied for best round of the day, and was only three behind the Oostman. I was still counting on Oosthuizen to get tuckered out and not be able to compete, crumbling away and allowing my flourishing Frenchman to power through with another seven under and take the biscuit. But no, my dreams were still not meant to be and King Louis was not deposed by the (un)conquering French, and the Open Championship runner-up shot one under for the title, and Wattel withered and couldn't quite rally another 65. The doubles were woofed.
Meanwhile in the Honda Classic I wasn't terribly placed, but I needed a win. Sergio was also only for the win. So was Fowler. My only each way interest was Thomas.

Sergio and Scott traded blows throughout the final day and El Nino still gave me hope. Scott did appear to be the stronger of the two, but I had faith in the man from Borriol was giving me hope. Garcia was level after 9. Adam bogeyed the 9th after being in the water for 2, but he was still one under for the day and was leading Sergio. Scott was well off to the left on the long par four 10th, and missed the green again and made bogey for back to back plus ones.

El Nino, the Spanish conquistador was now back in the driving seat. He made a good two putt par and progressed to the 11th. He perfectly positioned himself in the fairway. Ready to amp up the pressure, Sergio swiftly put one short of the green, narrowly avoiding the water. He knocked it to four feet for his up and down. He missed and made bogey. Scott made par and was back on top.

Scott stood up to the 12th, ready to strike back and battered one in to the right bunker. Garcia positioned himself well in the fairway. I find it difficult to describe what happened next. It was awful because it spelled the end for my campaign for the win. But it was a moment of golfing excellent. When you are a top golfist, you will find it difficult to do this ever. This is a once in a lifetime shot. Strapping Scott slung in a beautiful shot from the bunker to 2 feet. Scott was two ahead. Rickie had long dropped out of the running.

Almost identical pars on the 13th left me in the same situation. I was two behind with 5 to play. Again.

But my man Sergio gave me hope again. He'd been driving mutantly well all week and seemed to have found a way to power a fade through the sky and not lose any distance. After the tee shots he had 34 yards on Scott. Scott put it to 52 feet and two putted. El Nino put it to 6 feet and one putted. 1 behind, four to play. Three of those four holes were affectionately named the bear trap. I was hopeful. Adam had a quadruple bogey on the 15th yesterday after going in the water twice. Sergio has the honour, and put it to 42 feet. It wasn't in the water at least. Adam put it to 29 feet and both two putted for par.

Both bogeyed the 16th after some pretty poor short gaming. I was still one behind, with holes running out.

Disaster. Sergio, probably fearing the water held on to one of his shots a little, and missed the green badly, and Adam put himself to 20 feet. Sergio's second, over the bunker, left him with 12 feet. Adam barely missed his birdie putt and made par. Sergio almost burnt the hole, and made bogey. I was two behind with one to play. Justin Thomas was just about to secure 3rd place so I would make money either way. But I wasn't without hope. The Par 5 18th was makeable.

Both players drove within 2 yards of one another. Sergio pulled out the 3 wood and was ready to go for the green, with the beautiful power fade he'd been playing so well. Again, probably scared of the water he held on to it a bit, and damn near killed someone in the gallery. He got up and down for birdie, forcing Adam Scott to make his 2 and a half footer for par and the win, which he did.

He deserved the win.

But I wanted the money.


Trust in the Northern Trust

Yet more treble potential fired me up this week. The Northern Trust Open, The Maybank Championship, and back on the Sunshine Tour, the Data Dimension Pro - Am.

Justin Rose had finished well the week before and I was ready for an investment on my fellow countryman and soon to be hero. Trebles went flying. Matsuyama. Oosthuizen. Willet. Van Zyl. Stone. Bubba Watson. The list went on.

As was the story recently, nothing had gone that well. Rose had a shot but needed a strong round in the final day but all other interests had gone. Bubba was leading with one round to go but no other interest. Steve Palmer tipped up a match betting double in the RP which I had £10 on at 5/2. All four of the players missed the cut but Palmer's tip held firm and his two missed the cut by less than the others. £35 of ammo was in the bank.

For some time my friend, Mr Harrow, has been backing Jamie Donaldson, basically as a joke. (Sorry Jamie). However, as an increasingly superstitious punter I could hardly ignore the charge he seemed to be making. I had £1 on him at 500s, just in case. The other £34 went on Bubba at 5/2.

Then, Mr Harrow, some other friends and myself went out for some leaving drinks. Many hours later, after watching a friend consume enough food to be considered a professional eater and an argument with an Uber driver I found myself sitting on the floor in my bathroom at home. I consider what happened next the stupidest and most irresponsible thing to have happened in my punting life so far.

I had had a poor few betting weeks to be fair. I banged £150 on Bubba at 11/4.

Then I promptly fell asleep.

The next day was awful. Insufferable hangover having was only mitigated by the late shift at work. A sufferable hangover ensued. At some point I remembered about the bet and my sweating compounded. I decided to try and lessen the pressure on my body by beating two burritos. This went well. I was now as close to slipping in to a coma as I had ever been.

Later on the golf started. Things weren't going great. Kokrak, who was in great from was stealing the show from Bubba. Half way through the round Sky Sports decided to play those soul destroying montages of whichever player is in the lead. Going in to the back 9 Bubba was one back after a making only one shot on the front, and Kokrak was three under through the front nine.

Then, out of nowhere, Bubba found something. Rolling in the biggest putt of the day, with some Bubba brilliance, a quick, winding 28 footer found the centre of the cup. Things were level.

Both parred the 12th. Then. Disaster. Bubba bogeyed and Kokrak birdied. A two shot swing left my dreams in tatters. Watson was woefully two behind and Kokrak looked every inch the winner.

But then, Kokrak cocked up. In the bunker. Up and down for par was necessary but looked shaky.

Bubba was 2 behind with four to play but I was confident somehow. Perhaps it was delusion.

Actually, it seemed to be foresight. Kokrak made a poor bogey and Bubba made a stress free par.

Bubba was 1 behind with three to play. The man with the pink driver had the honour on the 16th. He stood up to the tee, and lathered his 8 iron in to 5 foot. Kokrak must have felt immense pressure at this point. He must have been closer to becoming a diamond than at any other point in his life. And he faltered, and found the front bunker. His shot from the sand was good, but still outside of Bubbas. He holed out, and gave Bubba the line. Wonderful Watson walloped his ball in to once again, become co-leader.

The next hole was a brilliant opportunity for Bubba. The slumper took out his pink driver and brutalised his ball 333 yards down the fairway. Kokrak could only manage 265 and was in the rough, which put Bubba in the driving seat.

Crumbly Kokrak put his second shot in the bunker, whilst Watson put his to 42 feet for eagle. Kokrak played well out of the bunker again but could only manage 48 feet from the hole for a birdie putt, but this time there would be no line for the B-man. Kokrak two putted for his par, and Bubba two putted for birdie and the outright lead.

Around this time, another former Masters Winner, Adam Scott, who finally seemed to have got his putter going, chipped in for birdie from the back of the green to get to 14 under, meaning that a bogey from Bubba would mean a three man play off.

A 301 tee shot from Bubba lost a bit of distance from a fade. Kokrak blasted a 320 yarder down the middle. Watson knocked it to 13 feet, which Kokrak couldn't better. Kokrak was up first and he almost nailed it. He thought it was in. But the perfectly paced putt just lipped out and rolled past. Bubba had two putts for the win. First put, no. Second putt, yes.

£681. Six hundred and eighty one glorious Great British Pounds were all mine. I felt like a millionaire and danced around my living room. Great crates of ammunition would be heading my way.



Tuesday 1 March 2016

Magnificent Mickleson - Or not quite

Funds are in short supply. Professional gamblers are just bookmakers these days. But the Pebble Beach Pro-Am was coming. An historic location combined with a celebrity and professional golfer line up looked like a stellar week was ahead.

£5 each way on Spieth & Stone at 5s & 30s seemed favourable. Both had already won this season and Stone was back on home turf in the Tshwane. A further double on Bubba Watson and Jaco Van Zyl was hopeful. £10 win on Snedeker was a consolation.

These all proved to be complete wastes of time. I considered backing Rose, seeing on Twitter that he had arrived in Pebble Beach on Sunday. But this was his debut here and I couldn't justify it.

Settling down on Thursday evening to watch 7 of the world's top ten I have to say I was excited. But the coverage was abhorrent. Whilst I could happily watch almost any professional golfist play at any of the three course on rotation this week, what I could not stomach was an amateur called "Boomer" something or other. Apparently some kind of sportscaster in the US, this beefy man with a swing like an elephant trundled round the course in worse form than I would have. Footage of the world's golfing elite was restricted to a couple of shots and I was forced to watch lucky amateurs play. This did not improve until Sunday.

I was basically out of the running immediately.

A whole bunch of useless. Until, that is, the final day. Mickleson was leading and was odds on for his first victory since 2013. I couldn't muster up the interest for a big enough bet so I didn't bother. But then, disaster struck. Back to back bogeys on 4 & 5 were clawed back by birdies on 6 & 8. Bogey on 11 from an errant drive was followed by birdie on 13. Phil was making unforced errors all over the place. Another bogey on 14 was a massive error.

Huge. Avoidable and huge. For a player of Phil's skill and experience, dropping a shot on a par 5 is unacceptable. In to the bunker for 3, then a poor two putt suggested Phil had lost his bottle. Meanwhile, Vaughn Taylor, previously 408th in the world was storming through the ranks. By this point he was adding the finishing touches to a seven under 65, matched only by Patrick Reed.

Phil's bogey on 14 put him two shots behind with four to play. I finally had some interest. Two pars put Phil in an even worse position. I seized the moment. £5 at 17/2 would certainly yield some interest. Seconds later Phil knocked in his best putt of the day to move one behind with one to play. Mickleson had played Pebble Beach the day before and had birdied 18 then also, with a brilliant 32 foot chip in, displaying his short game prowess once again.

Mickleson then proceeded to cream one down the fairway, just past the tree. From there, an excellent shot ran up the bottle neck and left Phil 60 feet to the pin. I fancied him to knock it in and take the outright. Five years ago he probably would have. But not today. Phil stuck it to five foot. Excellent, he'd been nailing these all week. This was confirmed by a stat that appeared on the screen. 23/23 putts under six foot holed this week. My play off was assured. But suddenly, Phil missed the putt. It was never in. Tap in par meant a final round score of level, tied 29th for the day, and second in the tournament. Small ventures are meant for small gains and this was a gainless week.

Again.

Bad form.