First up, the Volvo China
Open. Being played at Topwin Golf and Country Club for the first time should
present a challenge for all players. Tipping the yardometer at 7261 yards this
picturesque Woosnam designed course is not to be trifled with. Sitting at the
foot of the Great Wall of China, which is in view from practically every hole,
it would be easy to get distracted, and end up in the water that features on
all but 3 of the holes.
Holes 4 and 12 are both Par
5s boasting a yardage of over 600 yards, whilst 8 and 18 should be reachable in
two for some of the bigger boys. 2 is a brutal par 3, at 249 yards it will
likely stack up as one of the hardest holes on the course. Hole 11 is only 317
yards, which means we could see some eagles from the bombers.
Undulating fairways and
greens may introduce some elements of instability so perfect course management
will be required here, and the hit and hopers might be in for a bit of a no
hoper week.
Defending champion Ashun Wu
is 200s. Frankly, that's rude. Yes, it's a different course. Yes, he's ranked
196 in the world. But the 30 year old is humbled by the great honour of
defending his national open, and I think that merits considering him. The big price
also means that very little capital needs to be risked for reward, happy days.
Alexander Levy won this
tournament when it was at Genzon, the current course for the Shenzhen
International, which was played last week. Winning it on your debut is pretty
impressive, as is following that up with a T3rd the following year. The 25 year
old Frenchman, ranked 100 in the world comes in to this tournament with form
figures of 4-T14-T63-2-T24, which puts him in some pretty fine fettle. He and
some fellow compatriots recently set the World Record for the fast hole of
golf, and I think the Frenchman will be out to win this week. Seeking his 3rd
European Tour win and a tasty pay-day of over 450 thousand Euros, Levy will be
my top pick this week. Quotes of 16s seem a little under-generous from the
bookies, but I suppose there's a little bit of fear worked in there.
Part of my calculation this
week is based on some of the strong performances from the Spanish Open. Luiten
in particular had a good week, and arrives here in good form, with figures of
2-2-MC-6-T15-T8-T13-T5, all somehow without a win. Joost (which is pronounced
in such a way that it rhymes with "toast" (can you imagine what my
reaction blog is going to be like already?)) hasn't had a win since 2014, and
could do with one. The Irish Open is coming up soon, and a confidence boost is
needed. Luiten is a little too short for me this week, at 10s, but cutting him
from the plan is difficult.
My other worries for this
tournament read as such.
Lee Slattery, he had a
stunning three days last week, but faltered at the final hurdle, and struggled
on the last day, missing fairways and greens alike. But Lee is a trooper, and
will take the positives from the weekend.
Soomin Lee, looking to make
it two wins in two starts, he has the ability, so keep an eye on him.
Now, to New Orleans, and
the Zurich Classic. Justin Rose returns to defend his title at this 7425 yard
course. There are a couple of makeable Par 4s here, some long Par 3s, and an
excellent closing risk reward Par 5. Rickie Fowler tees it up for the first
time since the Masters and he basically couldn’t have had a worse tournament.
Missing the cut was awful from someone who should have been in strong
contention in Augusta, but he did not perform. Last year, in a poll of other
players on Tour, he and Ian Poulter were voted, very unfairly, as the most
overrated players on Tour. Poulter seems as though he may have taken this a
little to heart, but Rickie bounced back spectacularly. He won The Players
Championship last year, and guess what tournament is in three weeks’ time?
Sawgrass beckons and Rickie knows he needs to get on form.
He missed the cut in New
Orleans last year, and the year before, and could only muster T32 on 2013. I
will find it quite hard to axe Tricky Rickie from the staking plan this week,
and any spare pennies will likely wend their way on to the bold and excellent
player. But he isn’t going to form part of the initial plan.
Billy Horschel is my top
choice here. He won this tournament in 2013 and is in good nick at the moment.
The world number 44 hasn’t missed a cut since Dufner won the CareerBuilder
Challenge, and has form of T4-T54-T17-T38-4-T20, which is impressive. Billy had
a serious chance in Texas last week finishing with two birdies in his last 5
holes, which was unfortunately too little too late, being level for the day up
until that point. He had two wins in 2014 but hasn’t won since, so hopefully a
good bit of confidence at a course he knows and has won on should inspire him
to do well. Priced at 20s seems accurate and I will snap that up.
Cameron Tringale is my next
pick. He’s never won on Tour, he hasn’t had a top ten this year, but I’ve got a
feeling about him this week. His course form reads 2-T17-MC-7. Apart from the
slight anomaly with the MC, he has displayed good form at this course. Cameron
is still searching for his first career win on Tour and this could be the
course for him. Quotes of 55s from some of the bookies are good, especially
when you can avail 6 places.
Thomas Aiken is my outsider
of the week. A winner on the European Tour, but not since 2014 is searching for
a revival to his career. Aiken is one the best ball strikers on the Tour, and
his driving accuracy rank is number 1, at 74.66%. I expect that to play well
this week, with lots of water and trouble for errant tee shots. He isn’t a huge
hitter, but a methodical mind-set here should serve him well. Hugely priced at
400s with one firm, Aiken is another chappie who doesn’t need a big stake to
make money.
Some words on Hoffman, Rose
and Day. Hoffman is my man of the hour and I would expect him to play well
here, given the confidence he will have gained from winning last week. Hoffman
didn’t play here last year, but touted a T5 in 2013 following a fairly lacklustre
4th round, and priced up at 25s (again) I’m sure I can find a
little space for him in the plan.
I am unsure what to make of
Justin this week. Teeing up for the first time since a good T10 in the Masters,
and his form figures are excellent. T10-T28-T9-T17-T16-T6 are all very
convincing, but I fear Justin is losing his killer instinct. But the defending
champ thinks he has learnt how to play these greens with their slight and
tricky undulations, so only time will tell. I am not overenthusiastic about quotes
of 8s, so he might have to wait until the weekend for a bet.
And finally, to Jason Day.
Day cited fatigue for his poor third round performance at the RBC, and is
clearly in the mind-set that the week off he had will have fixed that problem.
Frankly, I am not so sure, and am worried the World Number 1, and member of the
Anti-Greg-Axis might underperform this week, and I have no desire about prices
of 11/2.
Well there we have it, no
doubt I’ll be proven considerably wrong immediately, and will have to lump to
slump over the weekend. Only time will tell.
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