Golfing Greg
Sunday, 26 June 2016
Hatred
Wednesday, 15 June 2016
Here comes the pain...
Tuesday, 14 June 2016
Wicked Weekend Weakens Weary Weapon-Wielder
Saturday, 11 June 2016
Time to get Involved
The idea behind the bets is looking for overall value. Stal did not perform as expected yesterday, but everyone has off days. Thankfully no one else was able to shine through and he finds himself only one shot off the lead going in to the weekend. 10/1 represents a huge amount of value for a one shot deficit, which would be easily overcome even in the last hole of the tournament, let alone with 36 holes to play. Stal seems the obvious choice in the field and shout outscore compatriot Gregory Bourdy, and the Lombard(direct) man today.
For some time yesterday I was regretting having not backed Colt Knost, and with good reason, he started on the back 9 and finished it three under for the day, and got up to eight under through 12. Colt was one behind and looked set to make up a couple more shots. Then, disaster struck. On the Par 3 fourth, courtesy of a blocked tee shot, Colt found himself twenty yards off line to the right. A perilous chip shot awaited him, with the quickening green ready to whisk away balls in to the water.
No sooner said thank done and Colt had to watch in frustration as his ball sneaked in to the wet stuff. Penalty and drop out and he chipped on for his fourth, two putted (should have been one putt) and made a 6. At a par 3. He dropped back three shots to five under and must have thought his misery had peaked, he had gone from one shot off the lead to four.
But no.
Oh no.
The Golfing Gods are not that kind and misery comes in droves, not drips. Colt's tee shot on the next found the rough, and now he was to be penalised for his lack of distance off the tee. Colt had 238 yards to the green, on a par 4, which is only three yards fewer than his tee shot went. The difference here for the guys with the distance is that even when it goes wrong, they don't have that much left. A strong wedge or maybe a 9 iron, just being cautious of a flyer out of the Bermuda grass rough, but Colt has to take a whole lot more club.
He did an admirable job from the thick stuff, but couldn't make the green. He was thirty yards short, and would need to display some serious short game prowess. Failing to really do so, Colt put his third shot to seven feet, and damn near holed the putt, but not near enough. A five meant four over through the last two, and the disappointment must have been at peak amounts and Colt was probably wishing that he had jumped in the water with the ball.
Colt must have thought that normalcy had resumed on the next hole when he made a fairway-green-two-putt par. Colt was wrong. Thanks to a tugged second on the next hole, and swiftly found himself with a twenty footer for par, which he did not make. Another five and Colt had dropped five shots in the last four holes.
Next up was a Par 3. Colt didn't take enough club off the tee and found himself in the front bunker. Inability to get up and down led to another bogey. Colt had thrown away six shots. Had I backed him, I would have been going absolutely loopy. (Not Loupe). I would have been wishing that I had a Colt 1911 so I could go rampaging and murdering, finally culminating in shooting myself in the head six times. I imagine Colt probably felt similar, although being an American he probably has access to that kind of thing. I consider myself lucky not to be an American, for pretty much that reason alone.
But Colt carried on, and on the 9th, his last hole of the day, he made another birdie. Birdieing the last is excellent for morale, so Colt may feel a little bolstered going in to the weekend, despite a poor rest of the round. The third favourite 14/1 shot is now available at 50s, Poor chap.
Brooks Koepka went about as far in the other direction as possible yesterday. He carded a solid 65, a score that has only been beaten once during the tournament, by Daniel Berger. Koepka is four off the lead going in to the weekend, and will be ready to take the course apart again, to card some strong scores. The powerhouse should do well this weekend, and can overcome any deficit.
Thursday, 9 June 2016
Throwaway Thursday
There seems to be very little worth being excited about this week. The most exciting thing is that it's the US Open next week. Whilst I anticipate two thoroughly enjoyable tournaments to watch, firepower is in short supply, as is top class punting opportunity. I think we'll start closer to home this week, and then move stateside.
First up is the Lyoness Open, in Austria. This fiercely named tournament is unlikely to provide fierce competition for the viewers. Defending champ and last-time-out-winner Chris Wood is back out to stamp his authority on the European Tour. I've previously backed players from a combination of current and course form, what course form is better than 1st last year and what current form is better than 1st last time out? A potent mix that I don't see worth looking too much beyond.
Market topper Luiten has been disappointing of late, throwing away opportunities that for someone of his skill should have had little trouble converting in to wins. He does however have fairly solid form here, winning three years ago, runner up on his defence a year later, and 3rd in 2011. A fair lack of current form whisks me away from Luiten.
I am unsure what to make of the PGA Event really. The week before the US Open is not exactly gripping me. Dustin is famously bottle-y since the US Open last year and as I have mentioned before, needs only a confidence boost. He is an all rounder, and will undoubtedly win again soon, and will probably notch a couple of Majors. But he needs the confidence, and this sub-par-ish (no offence chaps) field could be his week, but I won't be betting on the outright until after the conclusion of play today.
What did start to grip me however is Dustin Johnson's first round. The big hitter started to score well and I thought it was high time to get a bet on. I had £20 on Dusto to be first round leader at 13/2. As if he sensed that I had bet on him, Dustin decided to start playing terrible. He bogied his next hole, and then put one in the water on the Par 3.
I was following the action on PGA Tour's leaderboard which has a built in shot tracker function, which is brilliant. Brilliant if your chappie is playing well. If he's playing badly however, it's just like watch a satellite image of your head exploding. Dustin swiftly found himself at plus two for the round and I swiftly found myself cursing his and my own existence.
Just as I was about to kick the chair away from underneath me, Dustin stuck his second shot on the par 5 to eleven feet. I stood awkwardly on the chair and loosened the noose slightly. Dustin holed the putt and I took the rope off. Dustin went on to birdie the next four holes before, you guessed it, knocking it in the water on the next Par 5. This was disappointing, I was expecting birdie, if not better there, and he dropped out of the lead. He then followed this up with a further two birdies and was looking good, leading at five under. Then from nowhere on the 9th (his final hole) he made bogey to drop back to four under, for a share of the lead. At the same time the young Korean Noh, tapped in his birdie at the 18th and overtook Dustin. I'd gone from perhaps having a dead heat to having absolutely nothing. Needless to say I found the rest of the afternoon a little less than fun.
Anyway, back to the European Tour after the first day. Adrian Otaegui has the first round lead. Two shots clear, the world ranker 625 is probably not quite sure what to do at the moment. He's never had a finish better than T6 on the European Tour, and seems unlikely to convert this lead. He's eight under and the next chap in the betting is Bjorn Akesson, two behind at six under. This is another heady world ranker who has posted a few Top 5s on the Tour, so could hold on a little bit. Having said that, I see the real lead as five under, shared by Zander Lombard and Gary Stal. I'm siding with Stal in that arrangement, having won in Abu Dhabi last year, and having won on the Challenge Tour before then. Stal is my pick of the tournament going forward, and looks to be a juicy price at 25/1.
The next pick I have in the Lyoness is Kristoffer Broberg. Not only does he possess an excellent surname (c'mon Bro), he also possesses the skill and the experience to win here. Broberg has a European Tour trophy in his cabinet in the shape of the BMW Masters last year, beating an impressive field including Patrick Reed, Henrik Stenson and Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose, Danny Willett and more. Broberg is a big fish (Bro-eam - going too far?) in a small pond and should have little trouble triumphing here. Kris with a K is available at 22/1 and that's the kind of each way value we don't see a whole lot anymore. Snap snap says the hungry shark.
And better late than never is the PGA Tour. Headed up by Hoge, Noh and Stefani, we could be in for an action packed few more days. There are 67 players within 5 shots of the lead, which at this stage leaves the whole tournament wide open. Two reachable par 5s means that anything could happen. Large bodies of water could lend themselves to huge swings, so it's a bookies bonanza and a bettor's bitch of a line up ahead.
Big Boy Belter DJ heads the betting, and with good reason, as mentioned earlier. I imagine that this will finally be his week, and a course known for breaking maiden winners could be the right one to reignite DJ's career. However, at 3/1 with three rounds to play and such a wide open leaderboard, I am not rushing to back Dustin (or anyone, for that matter).
Hoge is world ranking 237 and hasn't won anything since 2011 on the Canadian Tour. Wide berth requested. Noh has a couple of wins on the European Tour and Asian Tour, as well as triumphing in the Zurich Classic two years ago, meaning that he knows what it is to win, but a two year drought may prove difficult to overcome. Shawn (with a W) Stefani is another high in the world rankings contender, with two wins to his name on the Web.com, a brace of second place finishes on the PGA tour in 2014, and nothing since. This maiden breaker course could come to force this weekend, and whilst unlikely, it is possible one of these chaps could win.
A much more likely winner is Colt Knost. Colt brings a string of good form in to this appearance, having missed only one cut in his last 19 starts on the PGA Tour. A smooth swinging, accurate operator who could be well placed to pop his cherry here. Colt finished T3 at The Players, another course which places a premium on accuracy. His drawback however is his lack of distance off the tee, which means that whilst he cruises around birdie-ing about, and being bogey free, one of the big hitters could start taking the course apart, with eagle opportunities abundant, Colt may quickly find himself a light-weight in a heavy-hitters field. Best prices of 14/1 aren't alot to shout about either.
Proven entity Jamie Donaldson is in good form at the moment, and much more reasonably priced at 25/1. I have mocked Mr Harrow for backing the Welsh wonder-man before, but perhaps he's finally recovered from nearly chainsawing his thumb off, and is ready to get Ryder Cup ready.
Another multiple time winner is Steve Stricker, who is thriving in his semi retirement. Quotes of 33/1 are available about this veteran, which hungry sharks will take up. Daniel Berger is hanging around and looking for his maiden win. I would be rushing to back this young man, were it that I didn't think he had a touch of bratishness about him. He responds to poor shots poorly, and seems to struggle to bounce back, which does not make a winner in my mind. Quite how he merits second favouritism in this tournament is beyond me, and his quotes of 14s makes Knost look appealing.
Retief Goosen has been threatening again of late. One of my earliest memories is of Goosen holing out and going on to win some tournament, which has always led to a sense of romanticism about the South African. Backing with the heart however is not for the profitable.
Italian Stallion Francesco Molinari is only three off the lead, and may look an appealing price at 50s, but don't be fooled, more than once old Franny has let me down on the final day, so my policy will be to steer well clear.
A final note on previous winners here. Fabian Gomez 150/1, Brian Gay 100/1, Dustin Johnson 3/1, Harris English 33/1 and Ben Crane 66/1 have all won here previously. Crane looks in best shape of the lot of them and is also most attractively priced. Brooks Koepka will also likely be in the mix come Sunday, though is not well priced at 25/1 given his current position, five shots of the lead. Finally, a wild card. Harold Varner III has been around a lot lately. This happy go lucky chappy is extremely popular on Tour, and could be set to burst through this weekend, so keep an eye out for him. 175/1, by the way.
Monday, 6 June 2016
Choking Under the Pressure
Saturday, 4 June 2016
Sauntering in to Summer
Similarly to this, after watching Jason Day on Friday, one could be forgiven for not remembering that he is World Number One. Well, maybe not if you watched him. Maybe if you jut looked at his score. Actually I'm taking that back. I'm not forgiving you for that.
How could you think that?
Jason absolutely played his heart out to make it round in one under. He couldn't keep his long game under control, stating he felt he had lost some confidence during the round, but his on fire short game saved him from certain doom. Missing things left and right early Jason had me scared. His score fluctuated up and down throughout the day and for every birdie he made he seemed to give a shot right back. I wondered what could have been going on. Not that I bet on it, but I supremely fancied him to be 2nd round leader.
He'd had a good first day, and usually suits an early tee time on a Friday. These are usually preferable, better conditions, cooler, less wind, and comfortable after the first round. It wasn't to be for Jason and he managed a non exciting round and could muster only one under. But I am not worried for the world number one. Saturday is moving day, and Day is a moving day superhero. There are already low scores out there, and it won't take much for Jason to get on a roll and shoot eight or nine under today.
I don't see Steele homing in today and scoring low, but Kuchar could continue to play solid golf and shoot six under again. Unless someone comes and starts creaming up the leaderboard I imagine the score needed for the 54 hole lead will be 17 or 18 under.
World numbers two and three both had spirited days yesterday and both are in touching distance.
Dustin Johnson failed to capitalise on his first round success and shot a stagnant 71. This is the same that Day shot yesterday, but Dustin was consistently in the fairway and was not making moves. I expect this of Dustin, but not until Sunday at least. I expect that he might have a crusher of a day today, be right in contention, and struggle tomorrow. Dustin lacks that Sunday supremacy at the moment, and just needs a bit of confidence to get some murderous killer instinct back.
I will be rooting for Kuchar. I've backed Kuch the last two weeks running and he has returned place dividends and nothing. He is a consummate professional and does what experienced pros do. He finds fairways and greens and avoids three putts.
Defending champ Lingmerth hasn't really got anything going yet and everyone's favourite Dane, Soren Kjeldsen is currently -8 (I've had to edit this number twice now! T1 for Soren) for his day.
Frys.com winner Grillo moved up the leaderboard yesterday and will be playing alongside bomber Gary Woodland. Don't back either of those chaps.
Local boy Harold Varner III is in fine form and is excited to play here. Zac Blair, who narrowly missed the play off with Snedeker and Gomez earlier this year is also putting in a performance here. Memorial is set for a ballistic Saturday Sunday Summer finish and watching will be a roller coaster for sure.
A quick note European-side. If you are thinking about having a bet on this for tomorrow, be prepared to get on the lump to slump train. Matty Fitz (my boy) is looking imperious with a five shot lead. He's 3/8 with some decimal bookie and 1/3 anywhere with a name you'd recognise.
Defending champ Noren is in T2 with Colsaerts which is probably a pair of fairly intimidating names to have behind you, but Fitzy is The British Masters Champ and will have no problem tomorrow.
Probably.
There is a whole bunch of water around that course which could spell trouble, Seems unlikely though.
If you want some value though, put a little tick by Andrew Johnston. The Spanish Open winner is 66s going in to the final day, Bet365 are actually 1/3 the odds for him to make the top 2 which is my value pick for the day,
Go away and watch the golf now.