Sunday 26 June 2016

Hatred

I hate everything right now. 

I hate myself.

I hate Golf.

I hate Golfists.

I hate that we as a country voted to leave the EU.

I hate the reductionist arguments filling my Social Media pages from the angry latte liberals calling the champagne righties racists or old or both.

I really hate golf though.

The US Open was relatively fruitful for me. I laid out £100 and had £270 back from my main lump on Brandon Grace at 50/1. 6 places was necessary as he bogied the last to drop in to a tie for 5th with one other. I could have written more about this, but I watched it before playing a 54 hole charity event, and then I went on holiday and had better things to do. 

Like sleep.

Congratulations to Dustin Johnson though. Three or four more majors he will win now. He and his brother and caddy Austin deserved the win. I wonder where they keep the other brothers, Bustin and Custin whilst the two of them make money to support the plethora of alphabetically named brothers they obviously have.

This week is a wholly different matter though. A pair of nothingy tournaments with zero to be excited about. No bets before the week began. Then some small bets on Sergio and Rickie and Ernie and Oleson (double) and Lorenzo-Vera and Rickie.

None of this was going particularly well so I decided to have a taste of the action properly. Rahm was looking on the cusp of imperious and after some vacillation on the idea of whether or not I would actually get back in to the lump to slump game, I lost 4 points on price so lumped as quickly as I could. £50 wend its way on to the new pro and US Open low amateur before you could say “the rain in Spain”. It then all went awfully. Aside from an extremely brief resurgence there was nothing to enjoy. £50 is not a hugely significant lump, and 9/4 is not a price to get excited about, but I was almost immediately angry.

Rahm started playing poorly-ish and Hurley, the super duper American ex-Navy hero all round good guy carried on being my worst enemy. The guy is 37 and has 101 Tour appearances without a win, has a good game and is incredibly hard to hate. But I managed to hate him. Oh, how I managed to hate him. Horrible thoughts sprang forth from my mind as did videos that I sent to people to make them laugh at my misery.

Rahm had me looking up what time Wickes was open to early on. I wondered if an Uber would be able to fit enough lumber and rope for me to be able to build a gallows and hang myself before realising that it was 10PM on a Sunday which means that nothing would be open. As a modern man I rarely shave due to severe laziness, and therefore don’t really have any actual razors which means that the old warm bath and a cold blade proposition was out.

When I placed the bet I was excited. My heart immediately went from its probably too high resting rate to higher than the highest rate ever recorded. My education isn’t good enough to know what that might be, and my late night googling skills aren’t sufficient enough for me to find out what the most beats per minute ever is. So let’s just say that my heart was beating one thousand times per second. It was beating so loudly as to cause a severe noise disturbance.

The police were alerted and quickly arrived at my house, on the belief that several chinooks had landed in the garden, which was the only rational explanation for the noise. The fire brigade, army, SAS MI5, MI6 and all of the other secret organisations arrived and pointed large and scary guns at me. This was my opportunity. I have heard of suicide by police. All I have to do is point my gun at the rozzers and they’ll be forced to open fire upon my stress racked body and I would be relieved of all my pains. I pointed my gun at them and they opened fire.

I felt the lead rip through my head and I was dead.

Then I opened my eyes. Even though I was being rocked about by my beating heart I could see enough to know that there was no one else there. I retreated to the safety of my hood. By which I mean the attachment of clothing, I am not attempting to use colloquialism to ingratiate myself to a different audience.

It all just went rather badly.

Just like the referendum. I’m not talking about it though.

Maybe just for a bit. I had one good bet this week. The Triple Threat. UK to vote to leave the EU. 11/4. Winner. Boris to be the next Tory leader. 9/4. Now Evens. And Trump to win the Presidential election, 9/4. Now 2/1. Better prices were available, but only the old reliable StanJo (StanJames) were up to the task of accepting a treble, so I snapped it up. £20 at 36/1 (ish).

When I placed it, I had never wanted a bet to lose more. I don’t see any of these things as being good, but I hope to profit in the case of misery. I am perhaps a war-profiteer. I understand the mentality. Since the vote came in, (bloody old and racist people ruining things), my life is all about the bet. I am on Team Boris, and Team Trump. Team Brump. Or Trumpson. Or whatever, they even kind of look the same.

It’s time to start betting against whatever I want and profit from my own misery. Dive head first in to the misery and hope it turns in to a pile of cash. Then make flags of it all and live on an old oil rig or something. Perhaps I could win enough money to run for PM. Bring out the best premo-policies wait until I’m 1/100 and then lay the heck out of myself. Then I’ll go on to national television and announce that I would be banning reality TV shows (or perhaps I could announce a common sense policy and count on 51.9% of the population thinking it "scare-mongering" NOT TALKING ABOUT IT), scuppering my vote and netting many billions of pounds, and buying my own island. Obviously I would need to do this on a reality TV show as no one seems to watch anything else now. I believe Phil Mickelson recently got caught doing something like this and he’s always smiling so I’ll be fine. (Sorry Phil, I know this isn’t quite true, love ya Pal). Anyway, when I announce my own island an independent state with incredibly lenient tax sheltering laws, I’m sure all charges will be dropped. When you’re rich, it must be so easy to get even richerer.

I can build a big golf course on my island and make Butch Harman and all of his sons come and teach me golfery and shoot anyone who beats me at golfing. I’ll have a formula one race there and all of the drivers will have to get insanely drunk with me before race day and the race will be dubbed Hungover in Hannover. FYI the island will not be called Hannover.

I realise that you are all incredibly endeared to me and my lifestyle so do this for me. Become American and vote for Trump. Or be American and vote for Trump. Or make sure that Bozza becomes the next Tory party leader. I won’t give you anything, but I will thank you. Not personally. And not even in a large public announcement. You will have no proof that I thanked you, but you will know that I said that I would thank you, and if that is not enough for you, then you are un-American or un-Conservative-y or whatever. 

Wednesday 15 June 2016

Here comes the pain...

Oakmont is here. The most brutal course in the world is here to take on all comers. Well, the 156 that qualified at least. Footage has been leaking through all week of brutally fast and tricky greens. Rain and quite possibly thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday and Friday, so picking a player from the correct tee time draw could be crucial. Getting out early on the potentially thunderstorm ridden Thursday (Thunderday – it’s not Thorsday for nothing!) and finishing, then being able to take advantage of the softer greens on the Friday will be important. I’m also a fan of teeing off from the 1st on a Friday.

Everyone knows Oakmont will punish wayward accuracy. There are few trees, but the rough is denser than the centre of the planet. I’ll keep it sweet, and bosh out some selections for you to take your pick from.

Numero uno, the boss this week, is Brenden Grace. This member of the world’s elite is priced outrageously at 50/1. Snap that up with as much money as you can. I have.

Adam Scott is next up. If he can bring his ball striking we saw earlier this year Oakmont might be more of a pushover. Offensively priced at 33/1, the Aussie should go well here.

Jason Day. World Number One. TPC Champion. Major winner, and all round hero. Do I need to say more?

Rory Mcilroy continues the chart. If he continues to strike the ball well and putt consistently, and keep his head up, he has all the skills to conquer the field this week.

Phil follows. Lefty hunts the career Grand Slam and 2016 may represent his best chance for some time. Good form, and some fire in his belly. I also garner that he recently escaped the clutches of some financial funny-business which may make him feel a little invincible, which will be necessary around here. Quotes of 33/1 are also a little insulting.

Jordan Spieth is the best price he is likely to be all year at 10/1. (11s if you were on Betfair for a couple of hours today). His putting is better than anyone else’s, which could count for extra this week. Although the greens might be so horrible it may make no difference, exposing the other weaknesses.

Matt Kuchar is the form horse and has the mental dexterity, coupled with the tee to green prowess to find fairways and greens. His experience and maturity will suit difficult days well here and Kuchar should shine. 40/1 is more than generous.

Brandt Snedeker. Loves performing when other players are struggling. Steaming form of 3-2-1 early this year have cooled off a little and whilst his putter may be a little cold of late, it’s possible that could count for little here. Or not. Either way, 70/1 on this rhythm hero is massive.

Matt Fitzpatrick. What is not to love about this young Sheffield-ian. Wining the Nordea Masters last week will be a huge confidence boost, as well as a solid place in the Masters, this young man is not afraid to compete on the big stage, his strong lag putting could serve him well here, as well as his accuracy off the tee. He has a touch of Spieth-like magic about him and could bring the hammer home here at a price of 75/1.

Sergio Garcia won last time out and is probably the best golfist to have not won a Major. Serg won last time out and is a proper hero. 50/1. Enough said.

Paul Casey is another Englishman with strong potential here. Clean crisp ball striking and calm under pressure. 80/1 is offensive.

Former World Number One and in form chap Luke Donald is also heroic. An unfortunate loss to Branden Grace (from which I profited) at the RBC, another course which places a premium on accuracy tee to green so he should be suited well. He is renowned as one of the best bunker players around, so the 200+ sand traps here mightn’t be that much of a punishment for him.

Masters champion Danny Willett gears up for his shot at the Grand Slam. That’s pretty much all that’s behind my decision to back him, though 33/1 could be regarded as a little offensive.

Finally for the outright, as a treat to Mr Harrow I’ve backed Jamie Donaldson for him.


1st Round Leader fancies are a plenty and DJ is excellent at the first round. Using more formulas I decided that Dufner has the best chance of leading, giving his good 1st round scoring stat, and his early ish tee time. 100s is top value. 

Tuesday 14 June 2016

Wicked Weekend Weakens Weary Weapon-Wielder

I look back on another uncharacteristically bad weekend. With what could amount to be the event of the year up coming up, the required warm up weekend went missing. I needed a good return on the weekend to set me up for some serious slumpage for this weekend. Winnings and elation have eluded me and pain erupts through my body without recourse. I am lacking in redemption and thoroughly consumed by failure.

Let’s start at the beginning.

As previously mentioned, I had £20 go swimming with DJ for 1st Round Leader.

Yuck.

Then I had £5 each way on Gary Stal before the weekend, £5 each way on Brooks Koepka and a £5 each way double. Stal stalled and went backwards and so did my heart.

The flying Frenchman did not fly to victory as predicted/expected/desired, but helped everyone open the door to allow Ashun Wu pick up his second European Tour victory since last year’s China Open. It’s impossible not to like the chap but even though Stal mounted a French charge on the final day, the French Revolution was quashed by the Imperious Chinese forces. (And Spanish and English and South African and a different vive le Francais advocate and someone from Holland. Thanks guys.)

Koepka was then my final hope and hope was not in abundance. If hope was a currency I would be a poor man. Thankfully hope is not a currency, unfortunately I am still a poor man. My lump to slump days of picking winners or having morosely large bets preceding the Sunday’s play are semi-behind me and the confidence is lacking. The long and the short of Koepka is that I had three places and he tied for 2nd with three others, meaning I had but three quarters of my stake at 2.75. This does not make for great returns (£9.17 to be exact, immediately re-slumped on Adam Scott to win the US Open). The depressing fact is that with most bookies one can’t even withdraw less than £10.

On Sunday I decided that Mickelson might do the business and had £20 on him. As well as £5 on Ricciardo to win the Grand Prix (bad times) and a £5 double (extra bad times). I watched the Grand Prix at work.

The Canadian Grand Prix is the best race outside of Europe. Tight and with ample opportunity for overtaking and represents what claims to be excellent value. Red Bulls have shown excellent pace here before and Ricciardo wanted to win almost as much as I wanted him to. I don’t know what F1 drivers get for winning races, apart from bottles of champagne larger than most dogs, but what I mean is monetarily. It couldn’t be more than the £50 I’d win, and the £55 I’d have going on to Mickelson at 5s.

Probably.

But I wasn’t about to find out what it was like to win. The beginning of the race was exciting, as was the bit where some stuff happened, but nothing good happened for me so I was bored and sad and without significant financial injection. I still like Ricciardo though, but the potential smile on my face was wiped off very much in the nature his was the week before.

Mickelson looked like he might do the business for a while. He and another veteran campaigner Steve Stricker were playing together and were likely to bounce experience off each other and be completely relaxed. Berger did not look relaxed. He was level through 10 and the attackers were coming up the beach. At this point I fell asleep. The chronic tiredness I was feeling from packing and being up to four in the morning drinking and behaving in a miscreant fashion had tuckered me out. The three hour delay on the golfery did not help and I missed all the rest of it. Checking my phone upon awaking in a daze I was immediately informed by the PGA Tour app as to who had won the tournament. Such a crushingly cold and clinical way to discover one’s fate. Imagine if doctors started delivering news in that fashion. The message said something like “Daniel Berger wins the Fedex St. Jude Classic”. Imagine finding out that you had an incurable disease that way. That’s how I felt. An empathy lacking programme had told me that I was not in the money and I was crushed. And knackered. I went to bed and decided to think about how to process it in the morning. I decided to ignore this for as long as possible.

Why couldn’t I win this week? Not loads. Just enough to have a sizeable lump on the US Open. Maybe just enough to have £100/150 to smash on someone. But it was not to be and I am going to have to rely on other means of financial gain. What are overdrafts for if not lumping?

I am going to pretend that I do have huge firepower this weeks. I am going to prepare a full broadside on the bookies. My armada is ready. The ships are sailing to war. The sky clouds grey and the sunset reflects blood red off the water, foreshadowing the destruction to come. Every bet until this point has been training to run out the cannons. Timing runs, aiming runs, distance finding. Practiced until perfect. The sails are taut and the wind favours me. Port and starboard batteries are run out and the enemy is in range. A lost battle is a battle one thinks one had lost, and my battle is not lost. I will prevail against the ever-growing enemy, and will not rest until the bookmakers are in ashes in my wake.

Or until I have enough money to retire.


Oakmont beckons. 

Saturday 11 June 2016

Time to get Involved

After the conclusion of yesterday's golf, I decided that it was finally time to weigh in on the action, and bet heartily on the outcome. I have opted (and so should you) for Gary Stal (10/1) in the Lyoness Open, and Brooks Koepka (7/1) in the Fedex St Jude.

The idea behind the bets is looking for overall value. Stal did not perform as expected yesterday, but everyone has off days. Thankfully no one else was able to shine through and he finds himself only one shot off the lead going in to the weekend. 10/1 represents a huge amount of value for a one shot deficit, which would be easily overcome even in the last hole of the tournament, let alone with 36 holes to play. Stal seems the obvious choice in the field and shout outscore compatriot Gregory Bourdy, and the Lombard(direct) man today.

For some time yesterday I was regretting having not backed Colt Knost, and with good reason, he started on the back 9 and finished it three under for the day, and got up to eight under through 12. Colt was one behind and looked set to make up a couple more shots. Then, disaster struck. On the Par 3 fourth, courtesy of a blocked tee shot, Colt found himself twenty yards off line to the right. A perilous chip shot awaited him, with the quickening green ready to whisk away balls in to the water.

No sooner said thank done and Colt had to watch in frustration as his ball sneaked in to the wet stuff. Penalty and drop out and he chipped on for his fourth, two putted (should have been one putt) and made a 6. At a par 3. He dropped back three shots to five under and must have thought his misery had peaked, he had gone from one shot off the lead to four.

But no.

Oh no.

The Golfing Gods are not that kind and misery comes in droves, not drips. Colt's tee shot on the next found the rough, and now he was to be penalised for his lack of distance off the tee. Colt had 238 yards to the green, on a par 4, which is only three yards fewer than his tee shot went. The difference here for the guys with the distance is that even when it goes wrong, they don't have that much left. A strong wedge or maybe a 9 iron, just being cautious of a flyer out of the Bermuda grass rough, but Colt has to take a whole lot more club.

He did an admirable job from the thick stuff, but couldn't make the green. He was thirty yards short, and would need to display some serious short game prowess. Failing to really do so, Colt put his third shot to seven feet, and damn near holed the putt, but not near enough. A five meant four over through the last two, and the disappointment must have been at peak amounts and Colt was probably wishing that he had jumped in the water with the ball.

Colt must have thought that normalcy had resumed on the next hole when he made a fairway-green-two-putt par. Colt was wrong. Thanks to a tugged second on the next hole, and swiftly found himself with a twenty footer for par, which he did not make. Another five and Colt had dropped five shots in the last four holes.

Next up was a Par 3. Colt didn't take enough club off the tee and found himself in the front bunker. Inability to get up and down led to another bogey. Colt had thrown away six shots. Had I backed him, I would have been going absolutely loopy. (Not Loupe). I would have been wishing that I had a Colt 1911 so I could go rampaging and murdering, finally culminating in shooting myself in the head six times. I imagine Colt probably felt similar, although being an American he probably has access to that kind of thing. I consider myself lucky not to be an American, for pretty much that reason alone.

But Colt carried on, and on the 9th, his last hole of the day, he made another birdie. Birdieing the last is excellent for morale, so Colt may feel a little bolstered going in to the weekend, despite a poor rest of the round. The third favourite 14/1 shot is now available at 50s, Poor chap.

Brooks Koepka went about as far in the other direction as possible yesterday. He carded a solid 65, a score that has only been beaten once during the tournament, by Daniel Berger. Koepka is four off the lead going in to the weekend, and will be ready to take the course apart again, to card some strong scores. The powerhouse should do well this weekend, and can overcome any deficit.

Thursday 9 June 2016

Throwaway Thursday

There seems to be very little worth being excited about this week. The most exciting thing is that it's the US Open next week. Whilst I anticipate two thoroughly enjoyable tournaments to watch, firepower is in short supply, as is top class punting opportunity. I think we'll start closer to home this week, and then move stateside.

First up is the Lyoness Open, in Austria. This fiercely named tournament is unlikely to provide fierce competition for the viewers. Defending champ and last-time-out-winner Chris Wood is back out to stamp his authority on the European Tour. I've previously backed players from a combination of current and course form, what course form is better than 1st last year and what current form is better than 1st last time out? A potent mix that I don't see worth looking too much beyond.

Market topper Luiten has been disappointing of late, throwing away opportunities that for someone of his skill should have had little trouble converting in to wins. He does however have fairly solid form here, winning three years ago, runner up on his defence a year later, and 3rd in 2011. A fair lack of current form whisks me away from Luiten.

I am unsure what to make of the PGA Event really. The week before the US Open is not exactly gripping me. Dustin is famously bottle-y since the US Open last year and as I have mentioned before, needs only a confidence boost. He is an all rounder, and will undoubtedly win again soon, and will probably notch a couple of Majors. But he needs the confidence, and this sub-par-ish (no offence chaps) field could be his week, but I won't be betting on the outright until after the conclusion of play today.

What did start to grip me however is Dustin Johnson's first round. The big hitter started to score well and I thought it was high time to get a bet on. I had £20 on Dusto to be first round leader at 13/2. As if he sensed that I had bet on him, Dustin decided to start playing terrible. He bogied his next hole, and then put one in the water on the Par 3.

I was following the action on PGA Tour's leaderboard which has a built in shot tracker function, which is brilliant. Brilliant if your chappie is playing well. If he's playing badly however, it's just like watch a satellite image of your head exploding. Dustin swiftly found himself at plus two for the round and I swiftly found myself cursing his and my own existence.

Just as I was about to kick the chair away from underneath me, Dustin stuck his second shot on the par 5 to eleven feet. I stood awkwardly on the chair and loosened the noose slightly. Dustin holed the putt and I took the rope off. Dustin went on to birdie the next four holes before, you guessed it, knocking it in the water on the next Par 5. This was disappointing, I was expecting birdie, if not better there, and he dropped out of the lead. He then followed this up with a further two birdies and was looking good, leading at five under. Then from nowhere on the 9th (his final hole) he made bogey to drop back to four under, for a share of the lead. At the same time the young Korean Noh, tapped in his birdie at the 18th and overtook Dustin. I'd gone from perhaps having a dead heat to having absolutely nothing. Needless to say I found the rest of the afternoon a little less than fun.

Anyway, back to the European Tour after the first day. Adrian Otaegui has the first round lead. Two shots clear, the world ranker 625 is probably not quite sure what to do at the moment. He's never had a finish better than T6 on the European Tour, and seems unlikely to convert this lead. He's eight under and the next chap in the betting is Bjorn Akesson, two behind at six under. This is another heady world ranker who has posted a few Top 5s on the Tour, so could hold on a little bit. Having said that, I see the real lead as five under, shared by Zander Lombard and Gary Stal. I'm siding with Stal in that arrangement, having won in Abu Dhabi last year, and having won on the Challenge Tour before then. Stal is my pick of the tournament going forward, and looks to be a juicy price at 25/1.

The next pick I have in the Lyoness is Kristoffer Broberg. Not only does he possess an excellent surname (c'mon Bro), he also possesses the skill and the experience to win here. Broberg has a European Tour trophy in his cabinet in the shape of the BMW Masters last year, beating an impressive field including Patrick Reed, Henrik Stenson and Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose, Danny Willett and more. Broberg is a big fish (Bro-eam - going too far?) in a small pond and should have little trouble triumphing here. Kris with a K is available at 22/1 and that's the kind of each way value we don't see a whole lot anymore. Snap snap says the hungry shark.

And better late than never is the PGA Tour. Headed up by Hoge, Noh and Stefani, we could be in for an action packed few more days. There are 67 players within 5 shots of the lead, which at this stage leaves the whole tournament wide open. Two reachable par 5s means that anything could happen. Large bodies of water could lend themselves to huge swings, so it's a bookies bonanza and a bettor's bitch of a line up ahead.

Big Boy Belter DJ heads the betting, and with good reason, as mentioned earlier. I imagine that this will finally be his week, and a course known for breaking maiden winners could be the right one to reignite DJ's career. However, at 3/1 with three rounds to play and such a wide open leaderboard, I am not rushing to back Dustin (or anyone, for that matter).

Hoge is world ranking 237 and hasn't won anything since 2011 on the Canadian Tour. Wide berth requested. Noh has a couple of wins on the European Tour and Asian Tour, as well as triumphing in the Zurich Classic two years ago, meaning that he knows what it is to win, but a two year drought may prove difficult to overcome. Shawn (with a W) Stefani is another high in the world rankings contender, with two wins to his name on the Web.com, a brace of second place finishes on the PGA tour in 2014, and nothing since. This maiden breaker course could come to force this weekend, and whilst unlikely, it is possible one of these chaps could win.

A much more likely winner is Colt Knost. Colt brings a string of good form in to this appearance, having missed only one cut in his last 19 starts on the PGA Tour. A smooth swinging, accurate operator who could be well placed to pop his cherry here. Colt finished T3 at The Players, another course which places a premium on accuracy. His drawback however is his lack of distance off the tee, which means that whilst he cruises around birdie-ing about, and being bogey free, one of the big hitters could start taking the course apart, with eagle opportunities abundant, Colt may quickly find himself a light-weight in a heavy-hitters field. Best prices of 14/1 aren't alot to shout about either.

Proven entity Jamie Donaldson is in good form at the moment, and much more reasonably priced at 25/1. I have mocked Mr Harrow for backing the Welsh wonder-man before, but perhaps he's finally recovered from nearly chainsawing his thumb off, and is ready to get Ryder Cup ready.

Another multiple time winner is Steve Stricker, who is thriving in his semi retirement. Quotes of 33/1 are available about this veteran, which hungry sharks will take up. Daniel Berger is hanging around and looking for his maiden win. I would be rushing to back this young man, were it that I didn't think he had a touch of bratishness about him. He responds to poor shots poorly, and seems to struggle to bounce back, which does not make a winner in my mind. Quite how he merits second favouritism in this tournament is beyond me, and his quotes of 14s makes Knost look appealing.

Retief Goosen has been threatening again of late. One of my earliest memories is of Goosen holing out and going on to win some tournament, which has always led to a sense of romanticism about the South African. Backing with the heart however is not for the profitable.

Italian Stallion Francesco Molinari is only three off the lead, and may look an appealing price at 50s, but don't be fooled, more than once old Franny has let me down on the final day, so my policy will be to steer well clear.

A final note on previous winners here. Fabian Gomez 150/1, Brian Gay 100/1, Dustin Johnson 3/1, Harris English 33/1 and Ben Crane 66/1 have all won here previously. Crane looks in best shape of the lot of them and is also most attractively priced. Brooks Koepka will also likely be in the mix come Sunday, though is not well priced at 25/1 given his current position, five shots of the lead. Finally, a wild card. Harold Varner III has been around a lot lately. This happy go lucky chappy is extremely popular on Tour, and could be set to burst through this weekend, so keep an eye out for him. 175/1, by the way.

Monday 6 June 2016

Choking Under the Pressure

I continued to not bet this weekend. I thought that I was going to find it very difficult for some time. Given that Matthew Fitzpatrick, someone I like very much was playing well, and Kuchar, who I tipped on Friday (Wednesday really) was looking fairly imperious, I was starting to get quite annoyed. Day was also throwing his chances away left, right but not really centre, and this would have sent me spiralling around in disappointment. Thankfully I am empathetic enough to be able to put myself in the shoes that I may have been in, had I had a bet.

I would not have backed Fitzpatrick. As much as I love the 21 year old Sheffieldian, he would not have topped my list. Since the Masters his form has read woefully, and he missed the cut in Sweden last year. I fancied Westwood a bit, but the way he left me feeling the week before, I wouldn’t have gone near him. I don’t even know who I would have backed in the end, so, you know, whatever.

I would, however have picked Kuchar, and Jason Day at the Memorial. It’s possible I would have had sizeable lumps on each of them, given their short prices at the beginning of the tournament. Both were well positioned after the first day. Kuch performed on day two and Day didn’t. Day three was woeful with little ground made by anyone, and then a weather delay (booooore) with Day finishing just before with a shocking double bogey, and Kuch finishing after the delay with a bogey, bringing the field closer together.

There were twenty something players within five shots of the lead, and as coverage started on Sunday, all hell was set to break loose. Mickelson was coming through the field, as was Mcilroy. Day unfortunately decided to go backwards. Feeling as though I had had a bet, this started to make me feel prickly. Coupled with the poor quality of the coverage, I started to feel a bit agitated. It was suggested that if I find the coverage frustrating that I don’t watch it, which was met with a burning look. Kuchar then started to cruise. He was sharing the lead with three others at one point, and one by one they all fell apart. DJ bottled in classic style and his putting started to desert him again. This was somewhat surprising as I had only recently remarked to father that I felt this could finally be DJ’s week. The US Open beckons and it is time for a confidence boost, DJ choked last year and needs to get over that. Perhaps next week will be his. Gary Woodland’s short game wasn’t up to the pressure, and he got wooden over everything, and I imagine he’d have rather been a tree. Then Kuch dropped one, and was back in a tie for 1st, with William Mcgirt. Mcgirt has never won the PGA, or the Web.com, and should not have provided any threat to 7 time winner, course expert Kuchar.

Then there was another buggering weather delay. The rules say that the players have to come off the course for at least an hour before the situation can be assessed again, which meant that I was resigned to reflecting on my decision to not bet this week. And to the washing up. And to getting hungry. And general boredom. I was starting to regret not having a bet on Kuchar. I would currently be counting my many millions, and wondering how to correctly thank the man for the winnings. Perhaps I would write to him. He doesn’t appear to have twitter, which means that a more heartfelt display of affection would be necessary. I have previously mused on commissioning flags to celebrate, but this wouldn’t be enough for Kuchar. I would have to open a wing of a hospital, and name it in his honour. Realistically I would have hardly been able to afford a memorial (see what I did there) bench on the local golf course, but one can dream. Thai food on the way, crockery drying on the rack, the golf resumed.

For some reason, even though this happens every year, the quality of the coverage when resuming from a weather delay is the wrong side of good. It’s unprecedentedly disjointed. No one seems to have any clue about what’s going on, and before I knew it, Kuchar was taking his fourth from the middle of the fairway. He would have to knock this in to make par. He did not. He made double. Form nowhere. He was in the fairway bunker off the tee. No problem. Experienced pros know to take their medicine, get out of the bunker and hope to make par, but settle for bogey. Kuch’s first did not make it out of the bunker, and now it seemed my heart was tied to his fate. He would be ok however, as there was a par 5 next, which he would pick apart with precision tee to green action and solid putting. Laying up in a strong position, Kuch looked set to attack the final par 5. He knocked it over the back. The wind was well up and there was nothing that could have been done about it. He then knifed the shot out of the rough, over to the other side of the green.

This was not good. This is something that I am disappointed about when I do, so I cannot imagine how he had felt. Kuch was choking. I was choking. A beansprout had become stuck in my throat, which is why my eyes were watering. Kuch then made bogey, to cement his fate. I was crushed. How could he have come so close so many times recently, have a grip on the title, and let it slip? Has he really lost his killer instinct, or is he simply saving it? I hope for the latter, but err to the former. Kuch is a world class act, and even though 7 wins on the PGA is a lot, and more than 80 top ten finishes if phenomenal, there is a note of under-performance in his history. He is in the midst of some of the best form anyone has ever heard of, but this could be the end of it. Circumstances outside of his control could be blamed for his failure to win before this week, but now there is no doubt that it was in his grasp, and he let it go. I then decided to be quite smug about not having had a bet this week. Had I backed Kuch, and had he just done that, I would have found the golf course in which Kuchar’s bench would have been, and would have razed it to the ground. I would have turned it in to wasteland. Towering infernos would have been spotted from the International Space Station, and flights all around the globe would have been grounded as my wrath was felt throughout the stratosphere. I would have been in a murderous rage, which would likely not have subsided any time shortly. When Curran and Mcgirt started the play off, I would have opted for Curran. He has shown some form in recent weeks, whereas Mcgirt has not been on my radar. I would have used excessive force and lumped impressively on the 29 year old with all my worth. This would have led to further losses and further rage.


The UN would have had to call an emergency peace committee to stop me, and even then I would not have been happy. Had I bet this week, I think I would be typing this in my own head, in a strait jacket and a padded cell, whilst the butterflies fluttered through my eyes, and I burnt them to crisps with my fiery hatred. Thankfully, a promise made not to bet has allowed me to keep my somewhat tenuous grip on sanity, for this week at least. Luckily, Kuchar is not out next week. 

Saturday 4 June 2016

Sauntering in to Summer

Summer is here. Sort of. Looking at the calendar, it's clear that the Summer is here. Looking out of the window it's anyone's guess what season it is. Looking at my attire at this time of the year, you might think that I think that it's Summer. Looking at my Irish(ish) complexion you would be forgiven for thinking otherwise.

Similarly to this, after watching Jason Day on Friday, one could be forgiven for not remembering that he is World Number One. Well, maybe not if you watched him. Maybe if you jut looked at his score. Actually I'm taking that back. I'm not forgiving you for that.

How could you think that?

Jason absolutely played his heart out to make it round in one under. He couldn't keep his long game under control, stating he felt he had lost some confidence during the round, but his on fire short game saved him from certain doom. Missing things left and right early Jason had me scared. His score fluctuated up and down throughout the day and for every birdie he made he seemed to give a shot right back. I wondered what could have been going on. Not that I bet on it, but I supremely fancied him to be 2nd round leader.

He'd had a good first day, and usually suits an early tee time on a Friday. These are usually preferable, better conditions, cooler, less wind, and comfortable after the first round. It wasn't to be for Jason and he managed a non exciting round and could muster only one under. But I am not worried for the world number one. Saturday is moving day, and Day is a moving day superhero. There are already low scores out there, and it won't take much for Jason to get on a roll and shoot eight or nine under today.

I don't see Steele homing in today and scoring low, but Kuchar could continue to play solid golf and shoot six under again. Unless someone comes and starts creaming up the leaderboard I imagine the score needed for the 54 hole lead will be 17 or 18 under.

World numbers two and three both had spirited days yesterday and both are in touching distance.

Dustin Johnson failed to capitalise on his first round success and shot a stagnant 71. This is the same that Day shot yesterday, but Dustin was consistently in the fairway and was not making moves. I expect this of Dustin, but not until Sunday at least. I expect that he might have a crusher of a day today, be right in contention, and struggle tomorrow. Dustin lacks that Sunday supremacy at the moment, and just needs a bit of confidence to get some murderous killer instinct back.

I will be rooting for Kuchar. I've backed Kuch the last two weeks running and he has returned place dividends and nothing. He is a consummate professional and does what experienced pros do. He finds fairways and greens and avoids three putts.

Defending champ Lingmerth hasn't really got anything going yet and everyone's favourite Dane, Soren Kjeldsen is currently -8 (I've had to edit this number twice now! T1 for Soren) for his day.

Frys.com winner Grillo moved up the leaderboard yesterday and will be playing alongside bomber Gary Woodland. Don't back either of those chaps.

Local boy Harold Varner III is in fine form and is excited to play here. Zac Blair, who narrowly missed the play off with Snedeker and Gomez earlier this year is also putting in a performance here. Memorial is set for a ballistic Saturday Sunday Summer finish and watching will be a roller coaster for sure.

A quick note European-side. If you are thinking about having a bet on this for tomorrow, be prepared to get on the lump to slump train. Matty Fitz (my boy) is looking imperious with a five shot lead. He's 3/8 with some decimal bookie and 1/3 anywhere with a name you'd recognise.

Defending champ Noren is in T2 with Colsaerts which is probably a pair of fairly intimidating names to have behind you, but Fitzy is The British Masters Champ and will have no problem tomorrow.

Probably.

There is a whole bunch of water around that course which could spell trouble, Seems unlikely though.

If you want some value though, put a little tick by Andrew Johnston. The Spanish Open winner is 66s going in to the final day, Bet365 are actually 1/3 the odds for him to make the top 2 which is my value pick for the day,

Go away and watch the golf now.